When new product development fails in China: mediating effects of voice behaviour and learning from failure

This paper investigates conflicts following a new product development (NPD) failure. Conducted in a Chinese business setting, the study examines whether voice behaviour and learning from failure mediate the relationship between task- and emotional conflict emerging from NPD failure. Our findings indicate that voice behaviour and learning from failure are necessary to effectively reduce task and emotional conflict and thus to enhance future NPD. Specifically, it is revealed that emotional conflict leads to a reduced level; and that voice behaviour and learning from failure are significant mediators that influences the relationships between emotional and task conflicts with it.     

Does easing monetary policy increase financial instability?

This paper develops a model featuring both a macroeconomic and a financial friction that speaks to the interaction between monetary and macro-prudential policy and to the role of US monetary and regulatory policy in the run up to the Subprime mortgage crisis. There are two main results. First, interest rate rigidities in a monopolistic banking system increase the probability of a financial crisis (relative to the case of flexible interest rate) in response to contractionary shocks to the economy, while they act as automatic macro-prudential stabilizers in response to expansionary shocks. Second, when the interest rate is the only available instrument, monetary policy faces a trade-off between macroeconomic and financial stability. This trade off is both qualitative and quantitative in response to contractionary shocks, while it is only quantitative in response to positive shocks. We show that a second instrument, such as a Pigouvian tax on credit to households on the demand side of the market, is needed to restore efficiency in the economy when both frictions are at work.     

Can negative interest rates really affect option pricing? Empirical evidence from an explicitly solvable stochastic volatility model

The profound financial crisis generated by the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the European sovereign debt crisis in 2011 have caused negative values of government bond yields both in the USA and in the EURO area. This paper investigates whether the use of models which allow for negative interest rates can improve option pricing and implied volatility forecasting. This is done with special attention to foreign exchange and index options. To this end, we carried out an empirical analysis on the prices of call and put options on the US S&P 500 index and Eurodollar futures using a generalization of the Heston model in the stochastic interest rate framework. Specifically, the dynamics of the option’s underlying asset is described by two factors: a stochastic variance and a stochastic interest rate. The volatility is not allowed to be negative, but the interest rate is. Explicit formulas for the transition probability density function and moments are derived. These formulas are used to estimate the model parameters efficiently. Three empirical analyses are illustrated. The first two show that the use of models which allow for negative interest rates can efficiently reproduce implied volatility and forecast option prices (i.e. S&P index and foreign exchange options). The last studies how the US three-month government bond yield affects the US S&P 500 index.     

Impact of interest rate surprises on Islamic and conventional stocks and bonds

This paper studies the impact of interest rate news surprises on Islamic and conventional stock and bond indices, using a dataset which covers interest rate announcements and forecasts, as well as stock and bond indices in three Islamic and eight non-Islamic countris. We find that interest rate surprises tend to have a smaller impact on the returns and volatility of Islamic than conventional bonds because Islamic bonds are structured to avoid explicit interest rates. However, interest rate surprises have about the same or bigger impact on the returns and volatility of Islamic relative to conventional stocks, despite the low amounts of cash and debt holdings of firms comprising Islamic stock indices.     

西方“前近代经济-社会史”的理论范式及其“中国化”：一个历史与逻辑的述评框架

关于“前近代经济-社会史”的研究，西方学界首开其端，形成若干种流派。进入中国以后，与本土问题相结合，表现更加多样。本文根据语义分析学中“同一‘能指’背后的‘所指转换’无限可能，以及在‘能指冲突’中理解‘所指’”的方法，一方面将各流派对前近代经济社会结构的理解作为一个维度，形成“共同体本位”与“个体本位”之事实差异；另一方面，将各流派对自由的态度作为一个维度，形成“对自由的认同”与“对反自由的认同”之价值差异。两维交叉，构成一个历史与逻辑的述评框架，从中或许可以窥见各派之间的共同点与分歧所在。     

Stakeholder perceptions and governance challenges in urban protected area management: The case of the Las Piñas – Parañaque Critical Habitat and Ecotourism Area,Philippines

The conservation and management of protected areas in urban settings has become increasingly challenging with dynamics over land use change in adjacent urban areas being highly relevant to, but at times conflicting with, the protected area. This study seeks to better understand the implications of land use change processes to urban protected area management through the case study of the Las Piñas – Parañaque Critical Habitat and Ecotourism Area (LPPCHEA) in Metro Manila, Philippines. Factors and processes influencing land use change and protected area management and the impact of stakeholders’ perceptions on protected area were analyzed. The urban protected area in itself has limited influence on its surrounding urban areas, as land use change in these areas is shaped more by social, economic and policy/institutional factors occurring within the context of urban-regional development. The study also found that land use conflict is evident in an urban protected area due to the competing ecosystem services derived by various stakeholders. This discord is deepened by the lack of coordination between land use planning and protected area management. Integrating protected area management with land use planning through legally binding instruments, specific timeframes and clear internal procedures can help resolve land use conflict for an urban protected area at the strategic or policy level.     

COMMUNICATION ABOUT FUTURE POLICY RATES IN THEORY AND PRACTICE: A SURVEY

We discuss the theoretical rationale for central bank communication about future policy rates, either as part of inflation targeting or in the form of forward guidance. We also summarize both actual central bank communication about future policy rates and empirical evidence on the effectiveness of these types of communication. We argue that there is a disconnect between the theory and practice of forward guidance, as theory assumes commitment on the part of the central bank, while in practice central banks generally do not commit. Future theoretical research on forward guidance should therefore take the absence of commitment by central banks into account.     

模糊层次分析法优化BP神经网络的交通冲突预测模型

本文通过全面剖析影响交通冲突的原因,以交通流量、道路几何设计和道路环境三方面的因素建立指标层次结构体系。提出基于模糊层次分析(FAHP)法优化BP神经网络(BPNN)的预测模型,应用于交通冲突预测。     

An examination of restaurant firm financing and the cost of borrowing

The use of debt is prevalent in the restaurant industry. While there have been numerous studies on restaurant capital structure, this study examines the relationship between firm performance and effective interest rate on debt used by restaurant firms. This study uses a sample of 56 publicly traded U.S. restaurant firms for the years 2012–2014. We examine the relationship between effective interest rates and firm performance as measured by approximate Tobin’s Q, return on assets, and return on equity. We find a significant and positive relationship between effective interest rates and return on equity.     

Hyperinflation in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate: A post Keynesian view

This paper examines the emergence of hyperinflation in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate from a post Keynesian perspective. Three variables play key roles: distributive conflict, external debt, and expectations about the exchange rate. First, we propose a short-run Kaleckian macro model. Then, we study the long-run behavior of the model by endogenizing the price level and foreign indebtedness. We conclude that the existence of expectations about the nominal exchange rate is crucial to explaining the emergence of hyperinflation.